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The importance of decadal-scale climate variability to wind-driven modulation of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Malcolm E. Scully¹

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1. Old Dominion University, Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography

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Document Type:

Manuscript

Date:

Received 02 June 2009 16:37 UTC; Posted 03 June 2009

Subjects:

Earth & Environment

Tags:

• change
• wind
• climate change
• hypoxia
• Chesapeake Bay

Abstract:

Millions of dollars are spent annually to reduce nutrient loading to Chesapeake Bay, with a fundamental goal of reducing the extent and severity of low dissolved oxygen (hypoxia) during the summertime months¹. Yet despite recent reductions in nutrient loading, large volumes of the Bay continue to be impacted by hypoxia and anoxia during the summer months^2-3. One obstacle to assessing efforts to improve water quality in the Bay and other estuarine systems is a complete understanding of the physical processes that modulate dissolved oxygen and the long-term variability of these processes. Here I analyze a 58-year data set of estimated hypoxic volume in the Bay² and demonstrate the importance that wind direction plays in controlling the extent and severity of summertime hypoxia. This analysis indicates that wind direction explains a greater percentage of the observed inter-annual variation in hypoxic volume than estimates of nutrient loading. The implication is that physical processes play a dominant role in modulating hypoxia and that much of the increased hypoxia observed since the early 1980s can be attributed to changes in wind forcing that are the result of decadal-scale climate variability. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding the physical processes that modulate dissolved oxygen in coastal and estuarine systems and highlight the potential impact that climate change may have on water quality in Chesapeake Bay and other estuarine systems.

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This document is licensed to the public under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License

How to cite this document:

Scully, Malcolm. The importance of decadal-scale climate variability to wind-driven modulation of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. Available from Nature Precedings <http://hdl.handle.net/10101/npre.2009.3308.1> (2009)

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