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Precipitation in Aberdeen, SD: data analysis approach

Boris Shmagin¹

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1. South Dakota State University

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Document Type:

Poster

Date:

Received 05 October 2009 19:23 UTC; Posted 07 October 2009

Subjects:

Earth & Environment

Tags:

• data analysis forecast extremes South Dakota Aberdeen precipitation

Abstract:

Daily, monthly, and annual sums of precipitation for Aberdeen, South Dakota, from 1890-2008 were analyzed using univariate and multivariate statistical methods (primary statistical analysis, factor analysis, time-series analysis: shift detection and simplified Fourier analysis – SFA) and provided descriptions of the variability (stochastic and cyclic or oscillatory) for monthly and annual sums of precipitation. The goal was to describe the natural variability in three scales, then to use this to forecast extremes, such as the spring 2007 flooding event that occurred in Aberdeen. The part of the variability that may be explained for sums of precipitation seasonality by factor model is 57%. The single time series relations of the main cyclic component to the mean sum of precipitation for monthly data (mean = 1.8 and altitude = 1.4 with period of 12 months) is equal 77.5% and for annual data (mean = 21.7 and altitude = 2.2 with period of 46 years) 10.4%. For time series of annual sum of precipitation the sum of cyclic altitudes is equal to 44.7% of mean. To expect extremely high daily sum of precipitation we have to use knowledge about variability of daily, monthly and annual sum of precipitation and May and June of 2010 look like a good sample of this.

Presented at:

South Dakota Academy of Science 94th Annual Meeting, Northern State University, Aberdeen, SD, 04 April 2009, 04 April 2009

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This document is licensed to the public under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License

How to cite this document:

Shmagin, Boris. Precipitation in Aberdeen, SD: data analysis approach. Available from Nature Precedings <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/npre.2009.3197.2> (2009)

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Other versions of this document in Nature Precedings

Version number	Document title	Date
v1	Posted 29 April 2009

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