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Dynamic Modeling of Vaccinating Behavior as a Function of Individual Beliefs

Flávio C. Coelho¹ and Cláudia T. Codeço²

Correspondence: (Login to view email address)

1. Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência
2. Fundação Oswaldo Cruz

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Document Type:

Manuscript

Date:

Received 28 October 2008 17:00 UTC; Posted 28 October 2008

Subjects:

Ecology

Tags:

• Yellow fever
• epidemiology
• Vaccine
• Bayesian
• belief

Abstract:

Individual perception of vaccine safety is an important factor in determining a person’s adherence to a vaccination program and its consequences for disease control. This perception, or belief, about the safety of a given vaccine, is not a static parameter but a variable subject to environmental influence. To complicate matters, perception of risk (or safety) does not correspond to actual risk. In this paper we propose a way to model the dynamics of such beliefs in the context of a realistic epidemiological scenario. The methodology proposed is based on Bayesian inference, and can be extended to model more complex belief systems associated with decision models.

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License:

This document is licensed to the public under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License

How to cite this document:

Coelho, Flávio and Codeço, Cláudia. Dynamic Modeling of Vaccinating Behavior as a Function of Individual Beliefs. Available from Nature Precedings <http://hdl.handle.net/10101/npre.2008.2447.1> (2008)

Version info:

Published version:

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000425 (Peer Reviewed) Published as: Coelho FC, Codeço CT (2009) Dynamic Modeling of Vaccinating Behavior as a Function of Individual Beliefs. PLoS Comput Biol 5(7): e1000425.

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